Danica Patrick is no All Star

This is a difficult blog for me to write.  For many years I’ve been following Danica Patrick in both IndyCar and NASCAR.  It was thrilling to see the close calls and competitive racing she had in IndyCar, along with the eventual win she had at Motegi.  It was exciting when she announced that she was going to try out NASCAR in what was then known as the Nationwide Series.  She had an exciting debut in an ARCA race, followed up by her first NASCAR start at Daytona.  She had a near pole win one year, followed up by an actual pole win at Daytona the next year.  Victory Lane eluded her, but she was on a part time schedule to start and hey, many others had come from open wheel racing to NASCAR and hadn’t done nearly as well.

She’s had a few races at Daytona in the Nationwide Series that were notable, but, as restrictor plate races often go, she was caught up in wrecks often not of her own doing.  Still there was hope.

When the announcement was made that she would be joining Stewart-Haas Racing and following in the steps of Tony Stewart and working with his team and former crew chief Greg Zippadelli the hope continued.  She would have excellent equipment, a strong sponsor, teammates in Tony Stewart and Ryan Newman that both had open wheel backgrounds and a solid crew behind her.  Again, a part time schedule to start at some of NASCAR’s toughest tracks, just to get her some seat time.  We as fans were frustrated when she was running at the back of the pack, literally qualifying dead last in many cases and running laps down if she wasn’t wrecked out.  However, we were assured that this was all part of the plan.  She was learning, getting time in the car and learning the system.  Turmoil on her Nationwide team with her crew chief getting fired and the team taking on a new direction didn’t help matters much, but the season ended and she was moving on to bigger and better things.

Her first full year Sprint Cup start at Daytona was interesting.  She won the pole (which many say was rigged) and drove her car to the back of the pack in her Duel race to prevent losing her starting spot.  She didn’t lead the first lap of the race, although she did eventually lead a lap, making her one of 13 to lead laps at the Indy 500 and Daytona 500.  After running 3rd throughout most of the race, she got shuffled back in the last lap and finished 8th.  Not bad, so there was hope.  But Daytona isn’t like the rest of the season.

She would go on to run pretty awful with the exception of Martinsville, where she raced her way up to 12th.  Otherwise though, she was in the low 30s, high 20s, finishing laps down and not competitive at all.  Towards the end of her first full season, her team was swapped with Kurt Busch’s team and she was given a new crew and crew chief, as well as the hand me down cars that they were salvaging from when Ryan Newman was with the team.

Her year with Daniel Knost as crew chief again was disappointing, but with flashes of decent finishes.  Communication was a struggle, whereas in the offseason it was thought to work well with her technical background coming from IndyCar and his engineering mindset.  While she lagged behind in the 20s and 30s, getting caught up in wrecks with guys like Landon Cassill and David Gilliland, Kurt Busch and her former team were at the front of the field and winning races.

She is on yet another crew chief, and her pit crew, which had won the fastest team in an internal SHR pit crew competition, was swapped out again.  The change is noticeable, because any progress she may make on the track is lost by horrible pit stops and mistakes.  Billy Scott seems unable to unload with a fast car, tweaking it to make it better, and instead rolls off 30th in practice and has to make huge swings to try to the car to live up to the potential of the equipment.

As fans, we are frustrated, especially when Kevin Harvick is one of the fastest on the track each week and winning races and championships.  Kurt Busch is winning races and contending for championships.  Tony Stewart isn’t doing so well, but his personal struggles off track with injuries and legal issues can be contributed to that as well.  After coming back from a back injury he’s running better than Danica has all season long.  We hang our hats on the little things though, like the top 10s at Kansas and Atlanta, only to have them crushed when she returns back to the same track.  We get hopeful that experience and Hendrick power will propel her to a win at Daytona or Talladega, or that her road racing experience will help her at Sonoma or Watkins Glen, but we’re consistently disappointed.

After winning the Most Popular Driver Award in the Nationwide Series she’s not done much from a fan standpoint in the Sprint Cup Series.  She’s won the fan vote a couple of times for the All Star race, save for the time she lost it to Josh Wise, but the entry has mostly been a waste.  Her experiences at both the All Star race and the Sprint Unlimited during Speedweeks have been lackluster to say the least.  She runs last, save for the cars that blow up or get wrecked and isn’t competitive at all.

I don’t like to agree with the detractors, but they are right.  She’s no All Star.  She’s done nothing in NASCAR to be worthy of that moniker.

I understand that NASCAR likes to have her in the races because she brings in a fan base.  It’s good to have diversity and she is still the only woman to have won a closed circuit race in a major national series, which makes her the best female in the sport.  However, she still needs to perform to be in the seat and thusfar, she hasn’t earned it.

I want her to succeed.  I want her to win.  I want to see a turnaround similar to Dale Jr., where he got paired up with a crew chief who demanded more of him and asked him if he wanted to be Dale Jr. or if he wanted to be a winning race car driver.  I want to see selfies in Victory Lane rather than headstands and puppy pictures posted to Instagram.  I don’t want to see her settle for 20th place as a good day. I want her competitiveness on the track to match her popularity.  I want her to stop being a celebrity and really focus on being a racer.

I want her to truly *be* an All Star.  I’m not giving up on her, because I think that as a true fan you have to be there when your driver/team/player sucks as well as when they are doing well, but it’s hard to defend her week in and week out when we see the same thing over and over again.

Sprint Cup Drivers in Xfinity Series #NASCAR

It’s another season and while we’ve seen some amazing races and finishes in the Sprint Cup Series, we’ve seen Kyle Busch dominate three out of the four races in the Xfinity Series.  After his injury last year, Kyle Busch isn’t running restrictor plate races anymore in Xfinity or the Camping World Truck Series, so of the four races we’ve had, he’s won all three that he’s entered.  This brings up the question/argument about Sprint Cup Drivers racing in the Xfinity Series.

First we have to ask the question of why they are racing?  The majority of these drivers race in multiple formats when they aren’t racing in NSCS on Sundays as well, since they have a passion for racing.  However, those events aren’t NASCAR events, so their regulations are different.  They love racing.  They live for Victory Lane, the trophy and thrill of winning.  For some, pulling double or triple duty can also increase their experience and growth for their NSCS careers.

The main reason they are racing though, is because sponsors and fans want them there.  Sponsors get TV time when they have a popular driver in the car and the fans can see their favorite Cup driver either multiple times in a weekend or for a lower cost than a Cup race.

The Xfinity regulars, at least in public forums like news and twitter, seem to be in favor of having the Cup drivers there because they like the competition.  On the rare occasion they do win a race, they beat a Cup driver or ten to do so.  Cup drivers don’t get points for racing in NXS, so there is still competition among NXS regulars, but they are still missing out on trophies, wins, prize money and exposure.

Often you’ll see dominating performances from the Cup drivers as well.  They win the pole then lead most of the race, if not all of it, with little threat to the lead and coast to Victory Lane, making for a dull event.  As we’ve seen this year, Kyle Busch has dominated so much of the races it’s almost predictable that we’re going to see the same thing week after week if he’s in the race.

I don’t want to restrict the drivers from racing.  They want to race and in some cases, like with Chase Elliott, Kyle Larson and other new-ish drivers to NSCS, the extra laps in NXS can help further their careers.  However, we have to do something to level the playing field.

One of the major advantages that the NSCS drivers have is they have the support of the NSCS team behind them.  Kyle Busch isn’t racing for just anyone.  He’s racing for Joe Gibbs Racing and his pit crew are the same guys that pit for him on Sundays.  When Dale Earnhardt Jr. races for his Jr Motorsports team (which is just Hendrick Motorsports NXS team) he has his same spotter, crew, and at times he had Steve Letarte on the box for him too.  This is the first step to level the playing field.

Anyone who performs a function for a race team in the NSCS may not perform any duties, even if they are different, for a NXS/CWTS team.

That’s a start.  When you’re seeing 11 second vs 14 second pit stops it’s because you have Cup level pit crews doing the work.

Another reason why the Cup drivers are running in NXS is that while they can’t earn driver points for the championship, they can earn owners points and manufacturer points for their respective championship.  There’s plenty of incentive there from the owners and manufacturers to stack the deck with all star rosters to rotate through and win those championships.  Typically the NXS drivers get little to no seat time in those rides.  Step two is take away this incentive.

Any car driven by a driver who has not declared points eligibility in NXS/CWTS is also not eligible to earn owner or manufacturer points.

With some of the incentive by the owners and manufacturers taken away, there will be a greater incentive to put NXS/CWTS regulars in the seats.

This last suggestion is going to be the most controversial I believe.  The major stick and ball leagues have restrictions on the number of franchises you can own in a market.  Mark Cuban, who currently owns the Dallas Mavericks, could also buy the Dallas Stars, Cowboys or Rangers, but couldn’t own more than two at the same time.  NASCAR has a similar rule in that you can’t field more than four teams at a time.  However, this rule is a per series rule.  As the NSCS drivers have the backing of NSCS teams, they carry a significant advantage to the teams that don’t have that backing, further creating a divide of the haves and have nots.

Limit ownership of NASCAR teams to no more than four in any one series, and no more than one in any subsequent series.  

If Joe Gibbs Racing wants to field an NXS or CWTS entry, they can do so, but only one.  What driver they put in that car is their choice.  It could be Kyle Busch or Erik Jones.  There are pros and cons to each.  However, this doesn’t prevent Kyle Busch or Brad Keselowski or Kevin Harvick or any other NSCS driver from starting their own team or hitching a ride with a non NSCS backed team.

I don’t think an outright ban is needed.  I just think we can level the playing field and reduce the incentives for the Cup drivers to drop down into the lower series to race.

Matt Kenseth vs Joey Logano, Danica Patrick vs David Gilliland and NASCAR’s Punishments

The rivalry between Matt Kenseth and Joey Logano came to a head this past weekend at Martinsville Speedway and NASCAR leveled a pretty heavy penalty on Matt for his actions, suspending him for two races.  His crime, as many know already, was wrecking Joey Logano, who is a Chase contender and was leading the race, while Matt was 9 laps down and already out of the Chase.  This was in retaliation for Joey spinning Matt out at Kansas a few weeks prior and Matt feeling like he was wrecked by Joey’s teammate, Brad Keselowski, earlier in the race.

Earlier in the race, Danica Patrick and David Gilliland had a similar dustup.  Gilliland bumped Danica while racing for position, sending her out of the groove and into the wall.  Danica got her car repaired and returned the to track 25 laps down.  While circling around the paperclip she came to Gilliland’s car and decided to enact some revenge of her own, bumping him and chasing his car up the track and into the wall.  She wound up on the worse end of it though as she tried to hit him again and he brake checked her, smashing the front end of her car in and ending her day.  Danica was given a $50,000 fine and a 25 point penalty for her actions.

As I write this, word just came out that the suspension was upheld and Matt is moving to final appeal on that.

To me, this is pretty clear cut and NASCAR has drawn the line on what is ok and what isn’t when it comes to “Boys have at it.”  To others though, it’s not, so let me clarify the differences in the incidents and why some got penalized while others didn’t, why the penalties that were assessed were different and past history.

First, with Joey and Matt.  This started at Kansas when towards the end of the race Matt was in the lead and Joey was behind him with a faster car.  Joey gave Matt a tap on the rear and Matt was blocking to hold his lead.  Joey pushed through and didn’t lift and as a result Matt wound up spinning out.  Joey went on to win the race and Matt didn’t advance to the next round of the Chase through points or wins at either Charlotte or Talladega.  (Joey won both of those races as well for the record)  At Talladega Matt felt like Joey brake checked him during a pit stop as well, fueling this feud.  For the spin at Kansas Joey wasn’t assessed any penalties.  This was determined to be a racing incident and acceptable contact.  They were in the final laps and racing for position (the lead) and neither drive was expected to give an inch.  Both were Chase contenders at the time.

Now, for Danica and David.  This has gone on pretty much since Danica entered NASCAR and has been rolling around in the back with the backmarkers.  They have beat and banged on each other routinely, often with Danica getting the worst of it.  At Martinsville though, it started with David feeling like Danica was blocking and he bumped her out of the groove.  They were both racing for position on the lead lap at the time and neither are or were Chase contenders.  She wound up in the wall with right front damage that took some time to repair.  She wound up 25 laps down when she returned to the track.  She was very angry about the incident as it wasn’t the first and was determined to get retaliation.  When she got near Gilliland again she did the same that he had done to her and bumped him up out of the groove.  A difference was that she chased after him after he went into the wall and under caution when he came back around she hit him again.

The incidents were similar, but had some differences.  In both initial instances the drivers were racing for position when the contact occurred.  There was no intent to injure or damage, but simply to move the perceived slower driver out of the way.  This is normal racing and part of “Boys have at it.”  That is why there were no penalties for the initial incidents.  In the retaliations both Danica and Matt were laps down, not racing for position and were out on the track with the sole purpose of wrecking the driver that had wrecked them.  This is the reason for the penalties.  There was an intent to damage and/or injure the other driver and they were not racing for position, but using their car as a weapon.  The reason that Matt’s was harsher than Danica’s is because he was a non-Chase driver who wrecked a Chase contender who was leading the race (and likely would’ve won his fourth in a row, punching his ticket to Homestead for the championship race.)

I am surprised that NASCAR didn’t suspend Matt for the three remaining races to prevent him from disrupting Homestead and expect that it will be reduced to a one race suspension and a fine plus points.  He’ll wind up finishing in 12th place for the season as a result.

Danica and Stewart-Haas Racing have said they will not appeal her penalty.

Historically the penalty to Matt is a bit harsh and I think there’s an example being set in part due to the new format of the Chase.  Matt could’ve very likely cost Joey the chance at a championship with his actions.  Previously Jeff Gordon and Clint Bowyer got into a similar crash at Phoenix where Gordon lied in wait and crashed Clint out and ended his chances at a championship (although he had a very long shot chance that year) and Gordon was given a $100,000 fine without suspension.  A race suspension wouldn’t have done much there as there was one race left and no chance that Gordon would impact the outcome anymore.  I also feel like Danica likely wouldn’t have gotten a penalty or as harsh of one if Matt hadn’t done what he did.  The blatant targeting of another driver though, can’t be tolerated.

So the question becomes, what is acceptable for retaliation to honor the driver’s code?  You hear all the time that payback will come at a short track, where the speeds are low and the chance for injury is also low.  The answer, again, is fairly simple.  Had Matt and Joey been racing for position and Matt bumped Joey and put him out of the groove and into the wall that would’ve been perfectly ok.  The score would be considered settled and no penalties would be levied.  It would’ve been chalked up as a racing incident and while some bad blood may have still existed between the two drivers, it would be pretty much over at that point.  In 2013 there was bad blood between Denny Hamlin and Joey Logano.  Joey and Denny had a tangle at Fontana early in the season that resulted in Denny hitting a wall and breaking his back.  Later in the year though, at Bristol, Denny was behind Joey and took the opportunity to put him into the wall.  No fines, no penalties.  They were racing for position and Denny got his retaliation.

It’s pretty clear to me how it all works.

Should @NASCAR Drivers Limit Their Extra Curricular Activities?

I may be late to the conversation, and I know it’s one that has been discussed before, but I felt like addressing again since it’s come to pass.

It’s no secret that many NASCAR Sprint Cup drivers race in non-Cup events regularly.  Some do Xfinity or Camping World Truck Series races.  Some do World of Outlaws.  Some do late models.  Some race in the 24 hours of Daytona, etc. While most of the time these activities don’t interfere with their primary job, racing in the Sprint Cup series, there are times when they do.

Most recently, Kyle Busch, racing in the Xfinity series for Joe Gibbs Racing at Daytona, was involved in a wreck that broke one leg in multiple places and the foot on the opposite leg.  The result was him missing not only the Daytona 500, but many other races as yet to be determined.  It has very likely cost him and his team the opportunity to run for a championship this year and may affect his future ability to race at all.  Kyle often races in the lower stock car and truck series, often doing double or triple duty over the course of the weekend.  He’s a draw for sponsors and fans to those races, but after this incident, is it worth it?

Kasey Kahne is another who races in non Cup races regularly.  He does the dirt tracks in the sprint cars when the opportunity affords itself and has been in a few wrecks doing that, although so far he hasn’t sustained any injuries from it.

Tony Stewart has had his share of issues with extracurricular racing lately.  Two years ago, in a sprint car, he was in a wreck that broke his leg and caused him to miss the rest of the season.  The following season he struggled in the Cup car and didn’t win a race.  That season was also interrupted due to the accident that killed Kevin Ward Jr. and the subsequent litigation that followed.  The start of the 2015 season hasn’t been kind to Tony either, with him falling behind in the standings early and failing to be competitive.  Some of that can be attributed to the car, but the fact remains that he hasn’t been the same since the accident that broke his leg.

Some extracurricular racing pays off well.  A.J. Allmendinger, Jamie McMurray and Kyle Larson have raced in the Rolex 24 in the past two years and come away with the victory and the Rolex payday.  No harm there right?  Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano and others routinely run Xfinity and Truck series races, bringing in fans and sponsors.  Some of that racing allows them to field their own Truck or Xfinity teams, allowing younger drivers the opportunity to run races as well.

While there are drivers chomping at the bit for a first class ride, sliding into a seat due to injury is never what is best for the team.  Once in a while it will pay off well, but for the most part they are filling the seat to keep the car in owners points for the next season.  It’s rarely as competitive as it was before.  This causes problems with sponsors and with the revenue earned by the driver for wins, making the Chase and higher finishing positions.  In football if you lose your starting QB, you probably lost your chance at the playoffs.  In baseball if you lose your starting pitcher or power hitter, you’re going to struggle.  The new Chase format may give Kyle a chance at the Chase, but he would have to get a waiver (probably not an issue,) win a race (could be tough, depending on how many races are left,) and get into the top 30 in points (getting more difficult as each week passes.)  Now NASCAR could skip the top 30 requirement at their discretion if he wins a race, but other than that I think they are preparing for next year.

Now, NASCAR as a sanctioning body doesn’t care what the drivers do.  They like having Kyle Busch in the Xfinity series because it brings fans to those races.  The local short tracks love having Tony Stewart show up for a race.  Again, it generates buzz.  The drivers obviously aren’t going to regulate themselves, regardless of how many times they get hurt.  Tony has said he probably won’t race a sprint car again after the death of Kevin Ward Jr., but that’s a pretty extreme example.  Should the owners and agents put clauses in that limit the activities?  You can race in Xfinity races as long as they aren’t super speedways like Daytona and Talladega?  You can only race in NASCAR sanctioned events?  Also, what about non-racing events?  Denny Hamlin tore his ACL playing basketball in a pickup game.  He didn’t miss any time if I recall, but it was painful for him to even get in and out of the car.  Should Carl Edwards be allowed to do his backflip if he wins?  Could Jimmie Johnson go sky diving or bungee jumping?  These drivers love the thrill of some of these experiences, but should they be limited for their own safety?

It also brings about the question of the crews.  What happens if you lose a pit crew member due to injury?  I’m sure it happens during the normal course of the season, but the Cup crews for these drivers often pit their Xfinity cars too.  Say some rookie Xfinity driver comes barreling down pit lane and takes out your jackman or your fuel man?  Then later you have a slow stop due to their replacement that causes you to lose a race or championship?

I don’t have an answer, but I’d love to hear the debate.

Is the Danica Patrick NASCAR Experiment Coming to an end?

While most folks watching the race at Texas Motor Speedway yesterday were focused on the Chase and the race for the lead, some of us were watching a different development.

As announced a few weeks ago, the #10 and #41 teams at Stewart-Haas Racing switched road crews and crew chiefs starting this weekend at Texas.  The pit crews remained the same.  Tony Gibson went to crew chief for Kurt Busch and Daniel Knost went to crew chief for Danica.  Some fans were skeptical and some were excited about the change, thinking that an old school crew chief like Tony Gibson would work better with Kurt Busch and that a younger, more engineering focused crew chief in Daniel Knost could work better with Danica Patrick, whose IndyCar background lent her to be a bit more technical in her feedback.  Since there is a ban on testing in 2015, Stewart-Haas said this was a way to “test” new personnel before they had to do it in real race situations.  Neither Kurt nor Danica are in the Chase, so there was little to lose with this idea.

The results were noticed immediately.  Kurt Busch, along with Tony Stewart and Kevin Harvick, all posted qualifying times in the top 6.  Danica qualified 27th, not even making it out of the first round of qualifying.  It didn’t get much better for Danica either.  While she did gain some positions in the practices that followed, the team made a last minute transmission change that forced her to start at the rear of the field.

While I focused more on Danica’s status during the race than Kurt Busch, it was apparent from watching the race and following on twitter that things were bad for the #10 GoDaddy Chevrolet.  With less than 40 laps in Danica lost a tire, forcing her to pit early and lose a lap in the process.  She was already a lap down at that point and would never recover.  From early on she was on pace to be 10 laps down by the end of the race and if not for a couple of wave around opportunities that’s exactly where she would’ve been.  As it was she finished 9 laps down after suffering another blown tire and hitting the wall.  She was never competitive and spent the majority of the race running against back markers in the mid 30’s.  She gained a few spots due to wrecks but finished second to last of the running cars.  It was misery from the drop of the green flag and Danica expressed her frustrations on the radio, even saying she wished she was part of some of the wrecks so she could be done with the horrible day she was having.  Communication with Daniel Knost was a major problem, as he was repeatedly asking spotter Brandon Benesch to repeat things that Danica said or explain what she said.  The blown tires are an indicator of a bad setup, probably using too low of an air pressure, beyond what the manufacturer specifies.  That’s a crew chief issue right there and worth noting that most other teams did not have issues with tire wear, especially after less than 40 laps.

Also worth noting is that Kurt Busch, with Danica’s car and crew chief, was fighting for the win at the end of the race.  He led laps and finished in the top 10 and may have finished higher if not for the pit calls at the end of the race.

I will state the obvious here, that Kurt is far more talented than Danica so we should expect him to do better, but should we expect Danica to do so much worse than she was before?  Prior to the swap she was making great progress.  She was finishing on the lead lap, racing competitively, qualifying better and overall just getting better and faster as the season went on.  If not for a late caution that pinned her behind cars that hadn’t done green flag stops at Talladega she could’ve won that race, or at least contended for the win.  Kurt, on the other hand, was struggling most of the year.  He did win at Martinsville but more often than not was not contending for wins or fast many weekends and while he did make the Chase on the back of that one win, he was way low in the standings and missed the first cut of the Chase.

So that brings us to the topic at hand.  Has Stewart-Haas given up on Danica or was it just a bad weekend?  Even the best drivers have bad weekends from time to time, but this just has the feeling of something bigger.  We saw it at Andretti towards the end and we saw it at JR Motorsports at the end of her time there too.  Both teams made changes to her team and her cars were inferior to the rest of the cars on the track.  I’m thinking that Gene Haas, who is sponsoring Kurt Busch and made the unilateral decision to bring him on, made the executive decision to put Kurt with the better performing equipment and personnel.  Probably convinced that Danica isn’t going to win or even contend for wins despite being in good equipment and with a good team (remember her pit crew won the SHR competition at the beginning of the year,) he’s going to let GoDaddy foot the bill for the rest of the contract and then Danica’s foray into NASCAR will be over.  After next year SHR will go back to three teams or perhaps will pick up someone else, but I doubt that Danica will be renewed or signed with another team.  She’s loyal to Tony and she likes Kevin Harvick but I also think she’s happy being Danica, versus being a race car driver.  We know that Richard Petty doesn’t think she’ll win, so RPM won’t sign her.  Richard Childress Racing has the Dillon boys that they are bringing up through the ranks as well as steady money from Menards and Caterpillar.  Roush Fenway Racing has Biffle, Stenhouse Jr and Bayne and I doubt Jack Roush wants Ricky and Danica on the same team together.  I think Penske and Ganassi have tried the open-wheel convert experiment so I would count those teams out.  Hendrick and Gibbs have four teams, so no openings there.  She won’t go back to Nationwide and she won’t run with a small, underfunded team.  Her ego is too big for that.

I like Danica.  I want her to succeed in the sport.  I’m a father of two girls who love watching her race.  I jump out of my chair and start whooping and hollering whenever she takes the lead in a race. It would speak volumes to the ability for other women to be able to join the ranks if she is successful.  However, if she is not I feel that owners will be less likely to sign a female driver for a long time.   These last two races of the season will tell us if Daniel Knost is the man for the job or not and if he’s not, then a new crew chief and team will run the show for the last year of this contract.  If she doesn’t compete for wins next year then I’m pretty sure she’s done in racing.  I just don’t see her going back to Nationwide like Sam Hornish Jr did or going back to IndyCar like Juan Pablo Montoya did.  While it’s possible that GoDaddy will continue to foot the bill and Tony Stewart and Gene Haas let them pay for it and she sticks around like JPM did, I’m not holding my breath on that.

I hope I’m wrong.  I hope that she goes to Phoenix next week and blows the doors off the place.  I hope she wins Daytona and gets a spot in the Chase next year.  I’m just not counting on it.

Clarification on Danica’s Performances this Year

Sometimes 140 characters isn’t enough to really say what is on your mind, which is why I have this silly blog.

Last night I got into some hot water on twitter for this tweet:

18th place finish for Danica is better than she ran. She got results better than she deserved to make up for when she got wrecked by others.

— Damon Hammis (@710squirrel) March 17, 2014

Many of the Danica Pack thought I was unfairly criticizing her for her performance last night.  With so many haters out there, it’s easy to see how that could be taken that way, but that’s not the case.  Immediately I was blasted by fans letting me know that she drove the last 100 laps with just 4th gear among other things.  So let me explain.

First the good.  She finished the race.  After DNFs at Daytona (twice) and Phoenix that were not of her own doing, finishing Bristol is an accomplishment.  She was also only 1 lap down at the end.  This is an improvement on last year with a top 20 finish.  And yes, she did drive the last 100 laps with only 4th gear, making restarts, pit stops, etc challenging.

Now for the bad.  Most of the weekend she wasn’t very fast.  She wrecked in the first practice just a few minutes in, collecting Parker Klingerman in the process.  Her qualifying speed landed her in 36th.  She started in the back due to switching to a backup car and practices 2 and 3 landed her in 34th.  She spent most of the race in the high 20’s, low 30’s, bringing out the caution after tangling with Cole Whitt.  He drove her into the wall and reports are that they were leaning on each other hard for laps before that.  That was the same caution where Timmy Hill rear ended Matt Kenseth.  He restarted behind Danica and later was racing in the top 10.  She continued to not make any friends for herself when she was trying to keep from being lapped and blocked her teammate, Kevin Harvick, costing him three spots.  He even said over the radio she needs to remember whose team she is on.  Some timely cautions helped her from getting more than a lap or two down for most of the race and later on (yes during the time she only had one gear) she slammed into Clint Bowyer’s car in the pits.  Only slight damage for both cars, but not making herself any friends for sure.  Even Darrell Waltrip was at a loss for words when he saw that.

Whether it is mechanical or talent is up for debate, but she consistently starts races and weekends slow.  She rides around in the back of the pack and gets lapped early then fights to get that back.  Once speed gets into the car she’s too far behind to compete for the lead.  At Vegas she was fast in practices, which were in different conditions than race day, but come the start of the race she was dog slow again.  After she was a lap down she started posting top 10 lap times, but the lack of cautions on the mile and a half tracks prevented her from being able to get that lap back.  Last night was similar.  Her times got much faster as the race went on, but still couldn’t get into the Lucky Dog position to get the lap back.    She was actually in danger of going a second lap down before the faulty caution came out to end the race.

When she was at Phoenix she said after getting caught up in wrecks by other people that her finish wouldn’t show how good they were.  I think that this is the same case.  A top 20 finish where many of the contenders were multiple laps down or out of the race due to mechanical failures or crashes is a situation where her finish was better than how she ran.

By comparison, Kyle Larson was running up front with the leaders.  Her teammates Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch led laps and Tony Stewart finished 4th after starting in the back.   And her boyfriend, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., finished 2nd.  Austin Dillon and Justin Allgaier finished ahead of her and were more competitive than her too.  Larson and Dillon are rookies.  Allgaier is also a rookie in a startup team that has similar but likely inferior equipment and resources.  Stenhouse Jr. is a sophomore like Danica who is being competitive.

I want her to win.  I want her to be in the mix on a regular basis.  SHR is struggling some, but they’ve had some fast cars.  Harvick and Busch have both been competitive this year and while mechanical failures haven’t given them the best finishes, they are leading laps, have won a race and are routinely in the mix.

I also think she has talent.  She’s not there just because she is a woman or has a sponsor.  She has talent.  I think that another year of Nationwide would’ve helped her greatly, but that wasn’t going to happen due to sponsor desires.  Switching from open wheel to NASCAR is hard.  Many others, arguably more talented than her, have attempted and failed.

Maybe I’m expecting too much too soon.  Ricky, while also a sophomore, has more stock car/NASCAR experience than her and has been successful at lower levels prior to making the jump to Cup.  He also has an owner who, during the time in the lower tiers, benched him because he wasn’t getting the job done.  Like I said earlier, another year or two in Nationwide would’ve done her a world of good, especially with the changes they made at JR Motorsports just prior to her departure.  Maybe 2014 isn’t the year that we see dramatic change.  Maybe I have to wait until 2015 for that.

What I want to see is consistent improvement over last year and to tracks she’s visited more than once.  The mile and half program should be much better than last year.  I want to see her in the top 10 all day long at Martinsville, where she ran well last year.  Start strong and finish strong.  Qualify well and get that car moving on starts and restarts.  I’m so tired of seeing her lose two or three spots on each restart.  When she’s been on the front row for starts and restarts she immediately gets swallowed up by the pack.  Drivers are growing increasingly impatient with her and some fans really just want to see improvement.  We want her featured on tv because of what she’s done, not because of who she is.  I want her to utilize the tools that she has on her team, with Smoke and Harvick and Busch and her mentor, Mark Martin.  They’ve seen talent in her.  I want her to learn how to win in NASCAR and shut the haters up.

So yeah, that was more than what 140 characters would say.  I’m a fan of Danica Patrick.  I just want to see her do better.

Ok, NOW the #NASCAR Chase Field is set…I think…

If you’re a fan of the sport (and if you’re reading this obscure blog you certainly are) then you’re aware of the changes to the Chase that happened yesterday. Due to the various events at Richmond with Michael Waltrip Racing, Front Row Motorsports and Penske Racing, NASCAR decided that Jeff Gordon should be added as a 13th driver to the Chase.

So the amended lineup looks like this:

1. Matt Kenseth – 2015 points
2. Jimmie Johnson – 2012
3. Kyle Busch – 2012
4. Kevin Harvick – 2006
5. Carl Edwards – 2006
6. Joey Logano – 2003
7. Greg Biffle – 2003
8. Clint Bowyer – 2000
9. Dale Earnhardt Jr. – 2000
10. Kurt Busch – 2000
11. Kasey Kahne – 2000
12. Ryan Newman – 2000
13. Jeff Gordon – 2000

I can’t say that I’m a fan of this decision nor can I say that I’m opposed to it. I can say I’m glad I didn’t have to make the decision though.

Basically it boils down to this. NASCAR *knows* that shenanigans happened on Saturday night at Richmond with MWR, FRM & PR. These actions got a couple of people in and a couple of people out. It was intentional and flagrant and despite that there was only a little bit of it they could claim to prove. They had to react in some way to it. I’m not sure that adding Gordon to the Chase was the right call, but it seems like he got a pity entry. As many others had mentioned, would NASCAR have made this change for another, less popular, driver?

Richard Petty was asked about this and he said that the big deal with it was that it was Richmond. Nobody would’ve cared if it was at Atlanta. Some folks on twitter said it wouldn’t have happened if we didn’t have the Chase. My response to that was what if something like this would’ve happened at Homestead? What if Newman had been racing for the championship win when Bowyer spun out? NASCAR had to do something about it and hopefully prevent this from happening in the future.

The winners out of this mess are Newman, Logano and Gordon. The loser is Martin Truex Jr. by far. He’s simply guilty by association. The actions of his teammates have stripped him of the chance to race for a championship and may cost him his sponsor and ultimately his ride. NAPA is said to be reviewing their partnership with MWR and if there is no sponsorship there’s no car. This could have very long term damaging effects for Truex Jr.’s career that he had nothing to do with.

Here’s the other thing. If Bowyer, Gordon or Logano win races and/or the title they will be asterisked as a result, especially if they win the title. If they aren’t contenders then this will matter very little I think. Another thing to watch is the performance of Martin Truex Jr. during the Chase. If he is consistent and/or wins through the Chase people will be screaming that he got screwed out of his position. If I can remember to do it, I’m going to track the standings of the 13 Chase drivers plus Truex Jr. as if he were a 4th wild card entry. It will be interesting to see who finishes where.

Michael Waltrip Racing and SpinGate at Richmond

I made it a point to watch the race at Richmond since it did have a lot of Chase implications in it.  The race didn’t disappoint but of course what everyone is talking about is the actions by Michael Waltrip Racing and the penalties that followed.

At first when Clint Bowyer spun out I didn’t think anything of it.  We’ve seen it with the Gen 6 car where someone can get near the rear quarter panel and the car will break loose on a turn.  It was a bummer for Ryan Newman, who didn’t have a good pit stop, lost spots on pit road and ultimate lost the race and his chance to be in the Chase.

Shortly after the race though, during the post race coverage, it became apparent that something wasn’t quite right.  Twitter was buzzing about if Clint spun the car on purpose to help Martin Truex Jr.  ESPN/ABC showed the in-car footage and radio conversations from the #15 Toyota and with that it certainly seemed like it was on purpose and malicious.  

In the next 48 hours we heard also about the actions of Brian Vickers’ team.  Vickers was ordered to pit under green, costing him laps and positions.  This allowed Joey Logano to move up into the top 10 in points, eliminating Jeff Gordon and further helping Martin Truex Jr. in earning a wild card spot.  We also heard that Clint Bowyer also made multiple trips to pit road in order to help his teammate with track position.

All of this was largely circumstantial evidence except for Vickers’ pitting.  The Waltrip camp denied it but the evidence was glaring.  NASCAR had to investigate.  They came up with a penalty and announced it on Monday night.

The penalty, assessed after the Richmond race and before the Chase reseeding, was a dock of 50 driver and owner points to all three cars at MWR, an indefinite suspension of spotter and GM Ty Norris and a $300,000 fine to MWR.  This dock of driver points prior to the Chase reseeding knocked Martin Truex Jr., who was in a tie with Newman for the Chase Wild Card spot, out of the Chase and put Ryan Newman in as a result.  Bowyer and Vickers lost points, but it was largely a non-issue for them.  Vickers was a part time driver and not in the Chase and Bowyer’s points were reset due to his Chase standings, so it had no effect on him either.

In my opinion the wrong driver got penalized.  I don’t believe that Truex Jr. had anything to do with the actions of his teammates and while he did benefit from it, I don’t think that penalizing him and his team was the right call.  I also don’t see anything really wrong with what Vickers did, allowing someone to pass him to put his teammate in an advantageous situation.  What I do have an issue with is Clint Bowyer spinning out on purpose, bringing out the caution and killing Newman’s chances of winning the race.  Now we can’t say for certain that the final 9 laps would’ve gone caution free and Newman’s team could’ve had a better pit stop and come out first on pit road, but that caution ultimately cost Newman a win, money, prestige, etc.

NASCAR had to do something and just what they could do they were somewhat limited by.  They weren’t going to alter the results themselves.  The finishing order, manipulated or not, would have to stand.  They can’t set a precedent by changing the results as it would appear to some that they were playing favorites and picking their winner.  They also have to be consistent with their penalty.  While I think that Bowyer should’ve had his points penalty after the Chase reseeding to impact his Chase chances, NASCAR would’ve had to apply the penalties inconsistently and again it would look like they were picking favorites.  If NASCAR penalizes Truex Jr. and Vickers prior to the point reseeding and then penalizes Bowyer after the reseeding it looks like a witch hunt or picking favorites.  So NASCAR has to penalize them all in the same way.  If they penalize all of the drivers after the point reseeding then Newman is still on the outside looking in and Truex Jr. and Bowyer are both penalized with their Chase points.  It was a lose-lose.  Since NASCAR could prove Vickers’ actions they based the majority of their judgement and penalty based on that.  

Michael Waltrip and Brian Pattie have both come out and said that there was no premeditation involved with any of it.  I do believe that Vickers’ pitting was probably spur of the moment.  I’m sure that it was mentioned to Vickers and Bowyer (both of whom had little to gain outside of a win) that if they weren’t in a position to win the race and a point was needed to help Truex Jr. then they should move aside for their teammate or another driver if that would help the situation.  I don’t think they mentioned an unscheduled pit stop directly.  As for Bowyer and his spin, I think that was premeditated.  I think that they probably said at a team meeting “we may need a caution at some point and if you aren’t in a position to win, bring it out by spinning the car.”  They can’t tell him directly to spin the car so they came up with the poison oak “does your arm itch?” story.  It’s total bs in my view.  Bowyer’s reaction, combined with the in-car camera and radio plus the radio of Dale Jr. shows that it was intentional.  This is why I think that Bowyer should’ve been penalized harsher as well as his crew chief suspended for the remainder of the year.  Maybe it was all Ty Norris’ idea and he fell on his sword for Mike Helton.  We’ll never know I suppose.

At any rate it’s as settled as it will get for now.  Newman is in.  Truex Jr. and Jeff Gordon are out.  I think some of it may be settled on the track, so I’d watch Martinsville and Phoenix pretty closely.

Not Impressed with the NASCAR Gen 6 Sprint Cup Car so far

The green flag hasn’t yet dropped on a points paying race yet, but so far from what I’ve seen I’m not impressed with the Gen 6 Sprint Cup Car.

We’ve had three races so far with the new car. The Sprint Unlimited was last Saturday night and then we had the Duel qualifying races on Thursday afternoon. During the Sprint Unlimited we had 19 cars on the track to start the race. We had a start and park with Terry Labonte so that brought the field to 18. Then we had a wreck that took out 6 more cars leaving us with 12. With drivers still trying to get a feel for how the car would handle we saw a lot of single file racing and cars really unable to pass. Kevin Harvick was at the head of the pack after the last break and stayed there until the finish. No last lap pass. No teammates shoving each other to get to the front. Greg Biffle made an attempt, but Harvick was easily able to cut in front of him and block.

Ok, so that was an exhibition race with a limited field. It was also the first time that a few of those drivers were able to get into the car in any sort of real race conditions. I’ll give that a pass for being boring.

Thursday came and I was excited for the Duel races. I was concerned that Danica would get wrecked out again and have to start from the back, but also was curious about how the drivers and cars would run in a much larger pack. 23 drivers in the first Duel and not much improved. The racing quickly turned into single file racing with a couple of different packs of drivers. There wasn’t a big pack like the fans allegedly wanted. It was multiple small packs and again, nobody could really pass through bump drafting or side drafting. We saw the car get a bit loose on Denny Hamlin and he wound up collecting Carl Edwards, Trevor Bayne and a few others. The good thing about the car was that despite Carl Edwards getting turned on the straightaway the car stayed firmly on the ground. Praise to NASCAR and the manufacturers for the safety features put into the car. For the second race in a row, Harvick was able to get in front after the pit stops and never left the front. Now some will say that drivers were still learning the car and that they didn’t want to risk wrecking their primary cars for the Daytona 500, but there was nothing that indicated that they could have made a pass if they wanted to.

The second Duel started and I thought we might see some more action after what drivers saw in the first race. Nope. Single file and around they go. The announcers were saying “Kyle Busch will make a move and his teammate Matt Kenseth will drop out of line and help him.” Nope. Kyle and Matt both dropped out at various times but didn’t hook up and neither went forward. Matt wound up losing spots in his attempt to go forward. Kyle took the lead after a speeding penalty on pit road caused Jeff Gordon to take a pass through penalty. Again, he got up front and never left.

Nobody can argue about how the cars look. There is a distinctive look to them that we didn’t have in the Car of Tomorrow (COT) that has helped to convince the manufacturers to stay in NASCAR. It’s sad that Dodge couldn’t keep a team together in Penske, because the Charger they had built for the Cup series was the best looking of the bunch. The SS is definitely a Chevy and the Fusion and Camry are recognizable, but the Charger was really cool looking. Looks aside I’m more concerned with how they race.

In Daytona preseason testing not long after the pack was formed Dale Jr got into the back of Marcus Ambrose and caused a huge wreck. In Sprint Unlimited pack practice Matt Kenseth caused a wreck within the first few laps of practice. I expected that the Duel races would follow suit and have early wrecks in the pack. The single file racing prevented that though. While NASCAR isn’t making changes for the Daytona 500, it will be interesting to see if they make changes to improve stability. If the Daytona 500 is a caution filled wreck fest with little racing then I would expect changes before Talladega.

Some of this is a result of “fan” input saying they didn’t like that cars could push each other and create the “two car tango.” First NASCAR eliminated the ability for drivers to communicate to each other during the race. This made it so spotters had to coordinate together and drivers had to sort of know each other and guess the other’s moves so that they could draft together. Then NASCAR changed the size of the grill openings which prevented air from getting in to the radiators and caused the cars to overheat if they were pushing too long. This prevented pushing for extended periods of time but the cars could still push towards the end of the race when blowing up the motor wasn’t an issue. This also caused cars to overheat in the pack though, which was a side effect of NASCAR’s attempts to break up the tango.

I’m a fan of the tango myself. I think that it made for exciting racing with cars moving from front to back of the pack and vice versa. The 2011 Aarons 499 race at Talladega that Jimmie Johnson won was one of the most exciting finishes you’ll ever see. They were 2 by 4 wide coming to the stripe and Johnson won it with a 2 thousandths of a second margin of victory. The Nationwide races at Daytona have been exciting in the past couple of years as well. The COT and the tango provided for great racing and exciting finishes.

Daytona and Talladega are unique tracks though. The Gen 6 car may be awesome at Phoenix, Las Vegas, Fontana, Texas, etc in the coming weeks and may make for some really exciting racing. My concern though, is the loss of the casual fan if the Daytona 500 stinks. This year has the potential for being the most watched Daytona 500 in a long time because Danica Patrick is starting on the pole. She’s bringing a lot of casual fans and eyeballs to that race and if that race is boring with single file racing or a wreck filled race that causes severe injury or delays the casual fans will change the channel. If you think back to the Brickyard 400 a few years ago with the tire issues they had it could be a big black eye for the sport if NASCAR fails this one.

Some are saying that when 43 cars hit the track on Sunday the racing will be better. Some are saying the real test won’t come until Phoenix, Las Vegas and Fontana. I’m hoping they are right.

2013 NASCAR Sprint Cup Predictions

It’s that time of year again. The Rolex 24 is over. The Sprint Unlimited/Bud Shootout/Busch Clash is this upcoming weekend and teams are heading off to Daytona in a couple of days to get back to racing.

NASCAR fans are fortunate that their sport has the shortest off season of any sport out there. And it’s not much of one at that. The checkered flag flies at Homestead in November, you enjoy Thanksgiving, the winter holiday of your choosing (usually Christmas in NASCAR circles), New Years, then the Super Bowl and it’s back to racing. We get off season testing, including Preseason Thunder at Daytona, which is broadcast on TV. The testing sessions, including tire tests, new car tests, etc, are typically open to the public and drivers and teams make themselves available to fans. You won’t get that in any other sport.

As with any off season, we’ve had drivers and crew chiefs move around, rule changes, etc. I won’t go over all of them for two reasons. First, I don’t know them all and second, you probably know most of them. So I’ll hit the highlights and then start with my picks.

On the Sprint Cup side of the house the team that made the biggest changes was Penske Racing. They left Dodge to go to Ford and start using Roush Yates Engines. They also picked up Joey Logano to drive the number 22 Shell/Pennzoil Ford Fusion. This combination of drivers and engine changes along with the new Gen6 Cup car will give them a bit more challenge than other teams may have.

Since Joey Logano vacated the number 20 Home Depot/Dollar General Toyota and left Joe Gibbs Racing Matt Kenseth has filled that spot. Driving a Toyota for the first time he adds a veteran presence and championship pedigree to Joe Gibbs Racing. This should have an immediate impact on Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin.

Well, now that Matt Kenseth has left Roush Fenway Racing there’s an open seat there. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will be moving up from the Nationwide Series and into the number 17 Ford. Ricky will inherit all of the number 17 team sponsors and crew except for crew chief Jimmy Fenning, who is now with Carl Edwards. Ricky will run for the Rookie of the Year this year.

We wouldn’t be able to talk about the Rookie of the Year battle and Ricky Stenhouse Jr without bringing up Danica Patrick now could we? Danica will run full time this year in a third car for Stewart-Haas Racing. She’ll be in the number 10 Go Daddy Chevrolet with new-ish crew chief Tony Gibson. I say new-ish because they ran the last two races of 2012 together when she did a 10 race partial schedule. Danica will race for the Rookie of the Year against her boyfriend Ricky.

Marcos Ambrose got a new crew chief in Drew Blickensderfer. Earnhardt Ganassi Racing started getting engines from Hendrick. Kurt Busch is at Furniture Row Racing. Landon Cassill is out at BK Racing and David Reutimann is in. Tony Eury Jr. is back at the Cup level on the box for David Stremme.

I think that about covers it for off season changes at the Cup level. Onto my predictions.

The Daytona 500 is a toss-up of course, because being around at the end can give you the opportunity to win. NASCAR has all but eliminated the bump draft with the new car, as the bumpers don’t line up like before and as they saw in testing, one mistimed or misplaced bump can send you off into the grass, potentially taking out a few cars with you on the way. Drivers will be much more cautious as they feel out the new car. I have a feeling that one driver in particular will do very well with this new car though. You probably expect me to say Danica and while I think she may acclimate well at Daytona, I don’t think she’ll win it. Instead I think her boss, Tony Stewart, will win his first Daytona 500 this year. With his talent at driving various vehicles in various types of situations, adapting to the new car shouldn’t be an issue. He’s won just about every other race at Daytona except the 500, so I think he’s due. My vote is for Tony Stewart in Victory Lane at Daytona. Don’t be surprised to see Danica qualify and finish well too.

At Hendrick Motorsports they had 4 drivers in the Chase last year. Jeff Gordon squeaked in with his wild card spot and Dale Jr went out with concussions, but Jimmie Johnson was in the title hunt and Kasey Kahne finished 4th in the final standings. I don’t expect HMS to have all 4 cars in the Chase this year. I expect Kahne and Johnson, but Dale Jr and Jeff Gordon aren’t likely to make it in my opinion. I think the concussion problems with Dale Jr will have him drive more cautiously than before and another good bump or two might put him out of the sport for good. Jeff Gordon was the victim of unfortunate circumstance a lot of last year. He had tire issues, pit stop issues and various mechanical failures that were not of his doing. This can get into the back of your head and I think that will carry over this year. I suspect he’ll be competitive at times and will win a race or two but likely won’t be in the Chase.

Stewart-Haas Racing is expanding to three teams this year like I mentioned earlier. Danica is now full time and I expect to see her get better as time goes on, but outside of plate tracks, road courses and Texas I don’t expect too much. Ryan Newman is paired up with his former crew chief and is in a contract year. He needs to be able to attract sponsors so I suspect he’ll step his game up quite a bit. I fully expect to see Newman in the Chase again. Tony will have himself a strong year as well. Again, with adaptability being a strong suit of his, he should have a strong year and be in contention in the end.

Joe Gibbs Racing is probably one of the strongest teams out there now. Denny Hamlin has had his runs at the Cup and I expect him to finish top 5 this year. He has hit it off well with Darian Grubb and their performance last year was better than I expected. He will likely be in the hunt until the fall Talladega race. Matt Kenseth is new to JGR and will have a lot of adjustments to make, but he’s also a veteran so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in Victory Lane once or twice. Despite that I don’t think he makes the Chase. He might make a wild card but I think he’ll have too many adjustments to overcome. Expect more next year from him. I really expect the most out of Kyle Busch though. Last year he had a down year filled with mechanical issues, challenges running his Nationwide program, and a goal to keep his nose clean. He managed to keep his nose clean but went winless in Nationwide and Trucks for the first time. Only 1 win in the Cup side and he missed the Chase at Richmond to Jeff Gordon. He’s a talented driver though and he’s made no bones about not liking the COT. I think the Gen6 car suits him more and he gets some swagger back. He winds up with multiple trips to Victory Lane, makes the Chase this year and wins races during the Chase.

Roush Fenway Racing took a bit of a hit when Matt Kenseth left. That spot is now filled with rookie Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Similar to Danica I suspect he’ll be doing a lot of learning this year. Top 15s will be where you will find him most weeks. I think he wins the Rookie of the Year though. I don’t think you’ll see him in Victory Lane this year, but he’s young and will be surrounded by a good team so it wouldn’t be a total shock if he did win this year. No Chase for him of course, but a good experience. Great things are to come from him in the future. I expect Greg Biffle to have another strong season. They started strong last year and finished the regular season strong but fizzled out in the Chase. I expect a stronger performance in the Chase this year. Carl Edwards had an absolutely dismal season last year. The sophomore slump hit him hard. His luck in the Cup series was as bad or worse as Danica’s was in the Nationwide Series in 2012. It was plain ugly. He lost Bob Osborne in the process due to health issues and never really had any momentum through the year. His last win was in Las Vegas in 2011, rapidly approaching 2 years. Carl will have a rebound year this year. I expect him to lead the class at Roush this year and make the Chase. Similar to Denny Hamlin I expect he’ll be the top 5 this year.

Penske Racing is praying for some stability this year with the 22 Shell/Pennzoil Ford. Roger Penske is really hoping that Joey Logano can keep his nose clean and get the 22 up the scoring pylon and into Victory Lane. The mentorship of champion Brad Keselowski should help him as will the guidance of The Captain, Roger Penske. No knock against Coach Gibbs by any stretch, but he may have had his hands full of Kyle Busch to manage Joey effectively. Joey gets to build his team now and make it his own, rather than jumping into a seat vacated by a former champion. The bar is low for him and I expect him to surpass it. Engineering challenges for Penske will plague them most of the year I fear so keep that in mind with some of Joey’s results. Brad Keselowski is riding high from his first championship and his twitter fame of last year’s Daytona 500. He’ll be strong as long as the team gives him a good car. He may have a Carl Edwards year if they can’t get the car working properly for him. If the car is good he’ll be in the Chase. If the car is not good then everyone will ask “Where’s Brad?” The Blue Deuce does look sharp with the new Ford Fusion Gen6 body on it though.

Richard Childress Racing. Their lineup has stayed the same with Kevin Harvick, Paul Menard and Jeff Burton. Harvick is leaving RCR after this year to go to SHR so it’s hard to say how things will go. Will he run harder to try to gain sponsor’s attention? Will he suffer due to a lame duck team? Will it make no difference? Only time will tell. RCR in general has to get better as their Cup program has been slow in the last couple of years. Harvick did manage to win a race last year, but I suspect new fatherhood was also partially to blame. It’s a distraction having a pregnant wife and then a newborn. He’s a professional, but he’s still human. He’s paired back up with his buddy Gil Martin this year so I suspect he’ll do better all around. Paul Menard is Paul Menard. Aside from his win at the Brickyard in 2011 I don’t see much there. Again hampered by the RCR engines I don’t expect much from him. He’ll drive as long as the sponsor is paying the bills. Jeff Burton has been real quiet for a while. I don’t expect much there either. They made a crew chief change to Luke Lambert so maybe that will have an impact. Harvick will be the only RCR car in the Chase again this year.

Earnhardt Ganassi Racing. Second verse, same as the first. Jamie McMurray and Juan Pablo Montoya are again running the cars for EGR. They have been abysmal in recent years and that has prompted a change to get engines from Hendrick Motorsports. This will give them speed but I’m still not convinced they know how handle the speed without running someone (or something like a jet dryer) over. Expect them to be faster at the plate tracks and I think JPM might win a road course again, but the oval win will still elude him. Neither makes the Chase here but will do better than last year.

Richard Petty Motorsports is in a similar position again this year. Marcos Ambrose and Aric Almirola are again running the number 9 and number 43 cars in 2013. Marcos was close for the Chase last year after getting a wild road course win at Watkins Glen. He showed improvement on the ovals as well. I think he’ll be faster and you’ll see more of him in the front this year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get an oval victory along with another road course win and pick up a wild card spot in the Chase. Aric Almirola was showing signs of improvement last year after a crew swap and I suspect we’ll see him in the top 15 more often this year. No Chase, but better overall.

Finally we have Michael Waltrip Racing. They are another team keeping the same lineup as last year. Waltrip, Mark Martin and Brian Vickers will shared the 55 driving duties. Clint Bowyer is back in the 15 and Martin Truex Jr. is back in the 56. This team was one of the most improved throughout last year putting two cars in the Chase, winning multiple races and poles and having Clint Bowyer finishing the season second. Their cars had speed throughout the year and they surprised many, including me. One of the major highlights or lowlights depending on your perspective was the wreck between Bowyer and Jeff Gordon at Phoenix. They still don’t like each other and it may very well manifest into another clash at the spring Phoenix race. I think last year was a bit of a fluke. I don’t expect them in the Chase as Truex Jr. has been unable to close the door on a win and Bowyer will likely suffer the second place slump. We’ve seen it with Hamlin and Edwards in recent years so it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him suffer the same fate. There will be flashes of strong racing, but ultimately they will fall short.

Here’s my Chase picks in no particular order:

1. Tony Stewart
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Brad Keselowski
4. Carl Edwards
5. Denny Hamlin
6. Ryan Newman
7. Kevin Harvick
8. Kyle Busch
9. Greg Biffle
10. Kasey Kahne
11. Marcos Ambrose
12. Kurt Busch

Who do I think will win the championship this year? Kyle Busch. With him more closely aligning his KBM truck and Nationwide programs with JGR I think that will help him in the Cup series as well. The new car and a second year in Cup with Dave Rogers should all be a combination that will lead him to victory. Nobody can doubt that he’s a talented driver, he just hasn’t been able to seal the deal and keep his attitude in check towards the end of the season. This year he pulls it all together and hoists the trophy at Homestead.

Agree? Disagree? Think I’m spot on or off my rocker? Let me know. I’ll post up my Nationwide predictions in a day or so.