As I’m sure you’ve heard, Danica Patrick made history today by winning the pole to the Daytona 500. She’s the first woman to win a pole at the Sprint Cup level so that’s a pretty big deal. Her qualifying effort today earned her the right to start the Budweiser Duel 1 race in the first spot, the Daytona 500 in the first position and a slot in the 2014 Sprint Unlimited. Powered by a car built by Stewart-Haas Racing with a Hendrick engine and chassis she had consistently been very fast since unloading earlier in the weekend. After practice she was the odds on favorite to win the pole, but with weather conditions changing and with her being a rookie it wasn’t really a lock. Regardless, she laid down a fast lap, one of two cars to break the 196 MPH mark and it held. The only challenger to her was Jeff Gordon, the other 196 MPH speed.
It is a remarkable achievement. It’s part testament to the team as well as the driver, as the teams work very hard for many months to build the cars that run at Daytona. It’s the biggest race of the year and carries long time clout for winning it. Being the first woman to win the pole and the first rookie since Jimmie Johnson in 2002 shows just how difficult the task is.
But’s let’s be realistic about things as well.
I’ll be the first to admit that I’m a fan of hers so you might be surprised at what I’m about to type. Danica’s pole winning effort and her very fast car improves her odds to win at Daytona for sure, but it’s no guarantee. The fastest car doesn’t always win anywhere and the pole winner hasn’t won at Daytona since Dale Jarrett did it in 2000. From what I’ve seen in preseason practice, Sprint Unlimited practice and the Sprint Unlimited race itself, being out front can help to avoid The Big One, so starting up front helps, but again is no guarantee that she’ll stay up front. She’ll get the number 1 pit stall entry, which will also help, but again is no guarantee. She’s run well at Daytona so it’s quite possible she could win her Duel race or the Daytona 500 so don’t be too surprised if she does, but don’t call her a failure if she doesn’t.
Super speedway race tracks like Daytona and Talladega are a different breed of race as well. Some teamwork is needed. Surviving The Big One is critical and with the restrictor plate cars are even more equal than normal. There is skill involved to be sure, but there is a lot of luck involved. Just ask Tony Stewart, who, despite winning 18 times at Daytona, has never won the Daytona 500. Ask Jimmie Johnson, who has won the Daytona 500 but wrecked out of all of the races at Daytona and Talladega last year.
I fully expect Danica to have a good showing this week. I’m not picking her to win the Daytona 500 but wouldn’t be surprised if she won her Duel race. After Daytona though, the real NASCAR season starts. This is where reality sets in for Danica Patrick. This is where the haters come out. IF she doesn’t win every pole and every race the doubters and detractors will come out of the woodwork and declare, once again, that she has no place in a “man’s sport.” A top 15 finish at Phoenix is likely a goal for the team, since they were on their way to a 12th place finish before a wreck with Jeff Burton in the final laps dropped her to 17th place. It’s likely though that she’ll qualify near the back of the field and possibly behind the other rookie, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. She will slowly make her way up through the field and take what the track, her car and the race gives her.
Las Vegas and Fontana will follow and I expect the results to be similar. The team will likely be faster here but the top 15-top 20 finish is what they’ll look for. They’ll look for a better understanding of the Gen 6 car, especially at Las Vegas, and how to make it comfortable and fast for her. Communication and continuing the learning process of running in the top series with the big boys will be more important than the finishing order. She’ll do OK at tracks that she’s been to more than once in a Cup car. She’ll likely do OK at Texas and Michigan. I had previously thought that she would do well at the road courses, but the Sprint Cup series is a lot different than the Nationwide series in that regard. Many Nationwide drivers are still learning the nuances of turning right instead of left. Most of the Cup drivers have driven road courses before either in NASCAR, Grand-Am, IndyCar, USAC or some other form of road racing. They also practice and test for it too. She won’t be a ringer for the road courses. Talladega and Daytona will be good for her as she has adapted well to the big tracks, but being realistic with the results is important.
Now I’ve been known to be wrong in the past and I’m just a fan making some assumptions based on what I’ve seen on track with her and other drivers. I think she has potential and she will win some races (yes, plural) but let’s keep things realistic this year. If you recall, when Trevor Bayne won the 2011 Daytona 500 everyone thought he should run for the Sprint Cup championship instead of the Nationwide championship that he had already declared to run for. He stuck with his choice of staying with the Nationwide series and it was a good thing. The rest of his year was not very kind to him. He wrecked out of multiple races, had trouble getting sponsorship for his Nationwide ride, fell very ill and had to be out of the car for a few months and had little success for the rest of the year except for one win at Texas in the Nationwide series.
So to make a short story longer, the point is this. Winning the pole for the Daytona 500 is an accomplishment that her and her team and her fans can be very proud of. Let’s keep it in perspective though and not pop the champagne until she’s in Victory Lane.
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