It’s that time of year again. The Rolex 24 is over. The Sprint Unlimited/Bud Shootout/Busch Clash is this upcoming weekend and teams are heading off to Daytona in a couple of days to get back to racing.
NASCAR fans are fortunate that their sport has the shortest off season of any sport out there. And it’s not much of one at that. The checkered flag flies at Homestead in November, you enjoy Thanksgiving, the winter holiday of your choosing (usually Christmas in NASCAR circles), New Years, then the Super Bowl and it’s back to racing. We get off season testing, including Preseason Thunder at Daytona, which is broadcast on TV. The testing sessions, including tire tests, new car tests, etc, are typically open to the public and drivers and teams make themselves available to fans. You won’t get that in any other sport.
As with any off season, we’ve had drivers and crew chiefs move around, rule changes, etc. I won’t go over all of them for two reasons. First, I don’t know them all and second, you probably know most of them. So I’ll hit the highlights and then start with my picks.
On the Sprint Cup side of the house the team that made the biggest changes was Penske Racing. They left Dodge to go to Ford and start using Roush Yates Engines. They also picked up Joey Logano to drive the number 22 Shell/Pennzoil Ford Fusion. This combination of drivers and engine changes along with the new Gen6 Cup car will give them a bit more challenge than other teams may have.
Since Joey Logano vacated the number 20 Home Depot/Dollar General Toyota and left Joe Gibbs Racing Matt Kenseth has filled that spot. Driving a Toyota for the first time he adds a veteran presence and championship pedigree to Joe Gibbs Racing. This should have an immediate impact on Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin.
Well, now that Matt Kenseth has left Roush Fenway Racing there’s an open seat there. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. will be moving up from the Nationwide Series and into the number 17 Ford. Ricky will inherit all of the number 17 team sponsors and crew except for crew chief Jimmy Fenning, who is now with Carl Edwards. Ricky will run for the Rookie of the Year this year.
We wouldn’t be able to talk about the Rookie of the Year battle and Ricky Stenhouse Jr without bringing up Danica Patrick now could we? Danica will run full time this year in a third car for Stewart-Haas Racing. She’ll be in the number 10 Go Daddy Chevrolet with new-ish crew chief Tony Gibson. I say new-ish because they ran the last two races of 2012 together when she did a 10 race partial schedule. Danica will race for the Rookie of the Year against her boyfriend Ricky.
Marcos Ambrose got a new crew chief in Drew Blickensderfer. Earnhardt Ganassi Racing started getting engines from Hendrick. Kurt Busch is at Furniture Row Racing. Landon Cassill is out at BK Racing and David Reutimann is in. Tony Eury Jr. is back at the Cup level on the box for David Stremme.
I think that about covers it for off season changes at the Cup level. Onto my predictions.
The Daytona 500 is a toss-up of course, because being around at the end can give you the opportunity to win. NASCAR has all but eliminated the bump draft with the new car, as the bumpers don’t line up like before and as they saw in testing, one mistimed or misplaced bump can send you off into the grass, potentially taking out a few cars with you on the way. Drivers will be much more cautious as they feel out the new car. I have a feeling that one driver in particular will do very well with this new car though. You probably expect me to say Danica and while I think she may acclimate well at Daytona, I don’t think she’ll win it. Instead I think her boss, Tony Stewart, will win his first Daytona 500 this year. With his talent at driving various vehicles in various types of situations, adapting to the new car shouldn’t be an issue. He’s won just about every other race at Daytona except the 500, so I think he’s due. My vote is for Tony Stewart in Victory Lane at Daytona. Don’t be surprised to see Danica qualify and finish well too.
At Hendrick Motorsports they had 4 drivers in the Chase last year. Jeff Gordon squeaked in with his wild card spot and Dale Jr went out with concussions, but Jimmie Johnson was in the title hunt and Kasey Kahne finished 4th in the final standings. I don’t expect HMS to have all 4 cars in the Chase this year. I expect Kahne and Johnson, but Dale Jr and Jeff Gordon aren’t likely to make it in my opinion. I think the concussion problems with Dale Jr will have him drive more cautiously than before and another good bump or two might put him out of the sport for good. Jeff Gordon was the victim of unfortunate circumstance a lot of last year. He had tire issues, pit stop issues and various mechanical failures that were not of his doing. This can get into the back of your head and I think that will carry over this year. I suspect he’ll be competitive at times and will win a race or two but likely won’t be in the Chase.
Stewart-Haas Racing is expanding to three teams this year like I mentioned earlier. Danica is now full time and I expect to see her get better as time goes on, but outside of plate tracks, road courses and Texas I don’t expect too much. Ryan Newman is paired up with his former crew chief and is in a contract year. He needs to be able to attract sponsors so I suspect he’ll step his game up quite a bit. I fully expect to see Newman in the Chase again. Tony will have himself a strong year as well. Again, with adaptability being a strong suit of his, he should have a strong year and be in contention in the end.
Joe Gibbs Racing is probably one of the strongest teams out there now. Denny Hamlin has had his runs at the Cup and I expect him to finish top 5 this year. He has hit it off well with Darian Grubb and their performance last year was better than I expected. He will likely be in the hunt until the fall Talladega race. Matt Kenseth is new to JGR and will have a lot of adjustments to make, but he’s also a veteran so I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in Victory Lane once or twice. Despite that I don’t think he makes the Chase. He might make a wild card but I think he’ll have too many adjustments to overcome. Expect more next year from him. I really expect the most out of Kyle Busch though. Last year he had a down year filled with mechanical issues, challenges running his Nationwide program, and a goal to keep his nose clean. He managed to keep his nose clean but went winless in Nationwide and Trucks for the first time. Only 1 win in the Cup side and he missed the Chase at Richmond to Jeff Gordon. He’s a talented driver though and he’s made no bones about not liking the COT. I think the Gen6 car suits him more and he gets some swagger back. He winds up with multiple trips to Victory Lane, makes the Chase this year and wins races during the Chase.
Roush Fenway Racing took a bit of a hit when Matt Kenseth left. That spot is now filled with rookie Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Similar to Danica I suspect he’ll be doing a lot of learning this year. Top 15s will be where you will find him most weeks. I think he wins the Rookie of the Year though. I don’t think you’ll see him in Victory Lane this year, but he’s young and will be surrounded by a good team so it wouldn’t be a total shock if he did win this year. No Chase for him of course, but a good experience. Great things are to come from him in the future. I expect Greg Biffle to have another strong season. They started strong last year and finished the regular season strong but fizzled out in the Chase. I expect a stronger performance in the Chase this year. Carl Edwards had an absolutely dismal season last year. The sophomore slump hit him hard. His luck in the Cup series was as bad or worse as Danica’s was in the Nationwide Series in 2012. It was plain ugly. He lost Bob Osborne in the process due to health issues and never really had any momentum through the year. His last win was in Las Vegas in 2011, rapidly approaching 2 years. Carl will have a rebound year this year. I expect him to lead the class at Roush this year and make the Chase. Similar to Denny Hamlin I expect he’ll be the top 5 this year.
Penske Racing is praying for some stability this year with the 22 Shell/Pennzoil Ford. Roger Penske is really hoping that Joey Logano can keep his nose clean and get the 22 up the scoring pylon and into Victory Lane. The mentorship of champion Brad Keselowski should help him as will the guidance of The Captain, Roger Penske. No knock against Coach Gibbs by any stretch, but he may have had his hands full of Kyle Busch to manage Joey effectively. Joey gets to build his team now and make it his own, rather than jumping into a seat vacated by a former champion. The bar is low for him and I expect him to surpass it. Engineering challenges for Penske will plague them most of the year I fear so keep that in mind with some of Joey’s results. Brad Keselowski is riding high from his first championship and his twitter fame of last year’s Daytona 500. He’ll be strong as long as the team gives him a good car. He may have a Carl Edwards year if they can’t get the car working properly for him. If the car is good he’ll be in the Chase. If the car is not good then everyone will ask “Where’s Brad?” The Blue Deuce does look sharp with the new Ford Fusion Gen6 body on it though.
Richard Childress Racing. Their lineup has stayed the same with Kevin Harvick, Paul Menard and Jeff Burton. Harvick is leaving RCR after this year to go to SHR so it’s hard to say how things will go. Will he run harder to try to gain sponsor’s attention? Will he suffer due to a lame duck team? Will it make no difference? Only time will tell. RCR in general has to get better as their Cup program has been slow in the last couple of years. Harvick did manage to win a race last year, but I suspect new fatherhood was also partially to blame. It’s a distraction having a pregnant wife and then a newborn. He’s a professional, but he’s still human. He’s paired back up with his buddy Gil Martin this year so I suspect he’ll do better all around. Paul Menard is Paul Menard. Aside from his win at the Brickyard in 2011 I don’t see much there. Again hampered by the RCR engines I don’t expect much from him. He’ll drive as long as the sponsor is paying the bills. Jeff Burton has been real quiet for a while. I don’t expect much there either. They made a crew chief change to Luke Lambert so maybe that will have an impact. Harvick will be the only RCR car in the Chase again this year.
Earnhardt Ganassi Racing. Second verse, same as the first. Jamie McMurray and Juan Pablo Montoya are again running the cars for EGR. They have been abysmal in recent years and that has prompted a change to get engines from Hendrick Motorsports. This will give them speed but I’m still not convinced they know how handle the speed without running someone (or something like a jet dryer) over. Expect them to be faster at the plate tracks and I think JPM might win a road course again, but the oval win will still elude him. Neither makes the Chase here but will do better than last year.
Richard Petty Motorsports is in a similar position again this year. Marcos Ambrose and Aric Almirola are again running the number 9 and number 43 cars in 2013. Marcos was close for the Chase last year after getting a wild road course win at Watkins Glen. He showed improvement on the ovals as well. I think he’ll be faster and you’ll see more of him in the front this year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get an oval victory along with another road course win and pick up a wild card spot in the Chase. Aric Almirola was showing signs of improvement last year after a crew swap and I suspect we’ll see him in the top 15 more often this year. No Chase, but better overall.
Finally we have Michael Waltrip Racing. They are another team keeping the same lineup as last year. Waltrip, Mark Martin and Brian Vickers will shared the 55 driving duties. Clint Bowyer is back in the 15 and Martin Truex Jr. is back in the 56. This team was one of the most improved throughout last year putting two cars in the Chase, winning multiple races and poles and having Clint Bowyer finishing the season second. Their cars had speed throughout the year and they surprised many, including me. One of the major highlights or lowlights depending on your perspective was the wreck between Bowyer and Jeff Gordon at Phoenix. They still don’t like each other and it may very well manifest into another clash at the spring Phoenix race. I think last year was a bit of a fluke. I don’t expect them in the Chase as Truex Jr. has been unable to close the door on a win and Bowyer will likely suffer the second place slump. We’ve seen it with Hamlin and Edwards in recent years so it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see him suffer the same fate. There will be flashes of strong racing, but ultimately they will fall short.
Here’s my Chase picks in no particular order:
1. Tony Stewart
2. Jimmie Johnson
3. Brad Keselowski
4. Carl Edwards
5. Denny Hamlin
6. Ryan Newman
7. Kevin Harvick
8. Kyle Busch
9. Greg Biffle
10. Kasey Kahne
11. Marcos Ambrose
12. Kurt Busch
Who do I think will win the championship this year? Kyle Busch. With him more closely aligning his KBM truck and Nationwide programs with JGR I think that will help him in the Cup series as well. The new car and a second year in Cup with Dave Rogers should all be a combination that will lead him to victory. Nobody can doubt that he’s a talented driver, he just hasn’t been able to seal the deal and keep his attitude in check towards the end of the season. This year he pulls it all together and hoists the trophy at Homestead.
Agree? Disagree? Think I’m spot on or off my rocker? Let me know. I’ll post up my Nationwide predictions in a day or so.
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